Victoria real estate market needs better mix of housing supply to help restore balance

A total of 544 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this August, 13.8 per cent more than the 478 properties sold in August 2022 and an 8.6 per cent decrease from July 2023. Sales of condominiums were up 10.8 per cent from August 2022 with 164 units sold. Sales of single family homes increased 9.6 per cent from August 2022 with 273 sold.

“Real estate activity this month reflected what we’d expect to see in an average late summer housing market,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “The beginning of the month was reasonably slow, and sales ramped up through the last half of the month. The brisk sales pace leading up to the end of August may very well continue into September.” 

There were 2,490 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of August 2023, an increase of 2.9 per cent compared to the previous month of July and a 16.5 per cent increase from the 2,137 active listings for sale at the end of August 2022. 

"The focus in our market and by all levels of government needs to be on opening up more supply," Sol notes. "Our inventory levels, though up from last year, are still too low to support a well-balanced market. A decade ago, we saw over 5,000 active listings in August. Another important piece of supply is the housing mix that is available. Most residential properties for sale in our market last month were single family homes – this type of property is generally at the top price point. Missing middle homes, such as townhomes and condos represented only 37.1% of listings for sale. Townhomes, which in my experience are what a lot of families hope to purchase, represented only 9.8% of the residential properties for sale. This imbalance in the mix of housing options means there is the potential for more price pressure on these types of properties because demand is concentrated at more attainable price points."

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in August 2022 was $1,327,700. The benchmark value for the same home in August 2023 decreased by 0.3 per cent to $1,323,900, which is up from July’s value of $1,318,800. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in August 2022 was $583,700, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in August 2023 decreased by 0.3 per cent to $582,000, which is up from the July value of $578,000.

A total of 595 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this July, 16.7 per cent more than the 510 properties sold in July 2022 and a 15.6 per cent decrease from June 2023. Sales of condominiums were up 16.3 per cent from July 2022 with 200 units sold. Sales of single family homes increased 15.4 per cent from July 2022 with 293 sold.

“We talked about the return to seasonal norms last month,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “The July numbers reinforce the re-establishment of seasonal patterns with a slow-down in activity as the summer season set in. This dip in activity doesn't come as a surprise — it aligns with the familiar and expected seasonal patterns that have been observed in our market over the years.” 

 There were 2,419 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of July 2023, an increase of 3.3 per cent compared to the previous month of June and a 11.9 per cent increase from the 2,162 active listings for sale at the end of July 2022. 

 "The good news is that, despite a slowdown in sales, we did witness an increase in inventory coming to the market in July," Sol notes. "These new listings are quite encouraging, as they indicate a growing movement in our market and show that consumers are becoming more willing to take action and make a move. The additional inventory translates to more choices for buyers, and makes it easier for sellers who are looking to make a property change. Another positive aspect of a typical summer market is that, due to people often taking vacations during this time of year, there may be fewer active buyers. Although we continue to see well-priced properties receive competing offers, there might be less competition compared to previous months. If you are contemplating a summer move, it would be wise to connect with your local REALTOR® for assistance. Your Realtor possesses up-to-the-minute information for Victoria and knows how to navigate the market efficiently."

 The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in July 2022 was $1,366,100. The benchmark value for the same home in July 2023 decreased by 3.5 per cent to $1,318,800, which is up from June’s value of $1,310,100. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in July 2022 was $600,000, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in July 2023 decreased by 3.7 per cent to $578,000, which is up from the June value of $573,800.

A total of 705 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this June, 15.2 per cent more than the 612 properties sold in June 2022 and a 9 per cent decrease from May 2023. Sales of condominiums were up 19.8 per cent from June 2022 with 242 units sold. Sales of single family homes increased 6.6 per cent from June 2022 with 322 sold.

“As we consider the first half of the year, we see a return to a more traditional sales trend which follows the seasons,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “During and shortly after the pandemic, we couldn’t rely on our usual comparisons to explain the market. This year we have seen a return to a seasonal pattern, where the sales are slower through the winter and may peak in the spring. This seasonal trend is generally followed by a summer market which remains stable but is not as highly active.” 

There were 2,342 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of June 2023, an increase of 7 per cent compared to the previous month of May and a 13.7 per cent increase from the 2,059 active listings for sale at the end of June 2022. 

“We have seen a small increase in inventory over the month of June,” adds Sol. “This inventory is very welcome, as we are still low on available listings for sale compared to historical counts. If inventory continues to rise, we may see prices stabilize further – another reminder of how important it is to add supply to the marketplace where possible. Well-priced properties are still selling rapidly while benchmark pricing remains reasonably level. In terms of pace and stability this is good news for sellers and buyers and hopefully heralds a summer of positive real estate transactions. To ensure that your transaction goes smoothly, engage a local REALTOR® to assist. Your Realtor knows the up-to-the-minute information for Victoria and how to navigate the market.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in June 2022 was $1,408,500. The benchmark value for the same home in June 2023 decreased by 7 per cent to $1,310,100, which is up from May’s value of $1,297,600. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in June 2022 was $615,200, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in June 2023 decreased by 9 per cent to $573,800, which is up from the May value of $569,300.

A total of 775 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this May, 1.8 per cent more than the 761 properties sold in May 2022 and a 21.7 per cent increase from April 2023. Sales of condominiums were down 0.8 per cent from May 2022 with 248 units sold. Sales of single family homes increased 8.7 per cent from May 2022 with 399 sold.

“The month of May marks the highest number of sales we’ve seen since April of last year,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “While we haven’t seen the number of total sales we would expect in a spring market, the month of May marks the fourth consecutive month with sales higher than the month previous. With momentum building, there’s an indication of consumer optimism in the market heading into June. However, if the ongoing lack of homes for sale persists and inventory is not added, we risk a return to an overheated market with pressure on pricing.” 

There were 2,189 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of May 2023, an increase of 7.1 per cent compared to the previous month of April and a 23.3 per cent increase from the 1,776 active listings for sale at the end of May 2022. 

“The return of consumer confidence we indicated last month appears to be staying strong,” adds Sol. “The slight uptick in inventory means there is more selection, though of course on well-priced properties buyers need to come prepared to move at pace with the help of their REALTOR® to ensure they are well positioned in the current market.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in May 2022 was $1,424,000. The benchmark value for the same home in May 2023 decreased by 8.9 per cent to $1,297,600, which is up from April’s value of $1,295,800. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in May 2022 was $619,500, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in May 2023 decreased by 8.1 per cent to $569,300, which is up from the April value of $564,000.

Not enough growth in inventory means spring market sales slow

 A total of 637 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this April, 22.7 per cent fewer than the 824 properties sold in April 2022 but an 8 per cent increase from March 2023. Sales of condominiums were down 21.8 per cent from April 2022 with 205 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased 19.4 per cent from April 2022 with 325 sold.

 “Sales numbers for this April are more moderate than the higher levels we’ve seen in recent years,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “We are in a familiar market pattern, where the majority of sales for the year occur in the spring. While we’ve seen an increase in sales over the previous month, we’re not expecting a return to record setting activity. Our inventory levels continue to be very low and new properties are slow to come onto market. More inventory is needed to balance the supply against spring demand. The good news is that prices have stabilized for now. If listings do not pick up over this season, there is a risk that the price stabilization could turn and we could see prices increase.” 

 There were 2,043 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of April 2023, an increase of 3.7 per cent compared to the previous month of March and an 49.7 per cent increase from the 1,365 active listings for sale at the end of April 2022. 

 "Though we are seeing multiple offers in our market, these situations are dependent on a number of factors including price, competition, area, condition of home, etc.,” adds Sol. “This means sellers should seek clarity on what to expect during their transaction as this spring market continues to evolve. Overall, consumer confidence in the market has returned. Accurately priced homes are selling quickly and close to list price. Your REALTOR® can help you understand the pulse of the market should you be contemplating buying or selling this spring.”

 The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in April 2022 was $1,424,900. The benchmark value for the same home in April 2023 decreased by 11.3 per cent to $1,264,200, which is up from March’s value of $1,236,200. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in April 2022 was $630,200, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in April 2023 decreased by 10.3 per cent to $565,000, which is up from the March value of $560,300.

Early spring market reflects consumer confidence and growing demand

A total of 590 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this March, 29.2 per cent fewer than the 833 properties sold in March 2022 but a 28.3 per cent increase from February 2023. Sales of condominiums were down 29.4 per cent from March 2022 with 197 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased 31.8 per cent from March 2022 with 281 sold. 

“We’ve seen our sales numbers this month almost double from January,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “As we move further into spring, we expect that the return to confidence we’ve seen in the market will continue. What we can’t predict is what the overall impact on pricing will be if we continue to see quite low inventory across our community. Some pockets of our market are busier than others - by working with your REALTOR® you can better understand the market you are in.”

There were 1,970 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of March 2023, an increase of 8.9 per cent compared to the previous month of February and an 85.3 per cent increase from the 1,063 active listings for sale at the end of March 2022. 

“Demand is recovering,” adds Sol. “Compared to the end of 2022, prices have firmed up and interest rates have become normalized. Consumers are more active, and we are seeing quite a few multiple offers on well-priced properties. Inventory continues to trend lower than long term averages. As our spring market continues to strengthen, we may start to experience some upward pressure on pricing again. We have been talking about the need for supply to help moderate pricing for a long time. Premier Eby’s announcement this week about the provincial government’s Homes for People action plan reflects an increasing awareness of the importance of supply. We need all levels of government to continue to focus on solving our market housing crunch, so we do not return to the high-pressure markets of the recent past.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in March 2022 was $1,387,200. The benchmark value for the same home in March 2023 decreased by 10.9 per cent to $1,236,200, down from February’s value of $1,247,200. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in March 2022 was $616,400, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in March 2023 decreased by 9.1 per cent to $560,300, down from the February value of $568,200.

Happy Spring! Early flowers are in bloom, and it seems as if everything else is budding, including the real estate market. 

We are seeing a slight shift in the market, specifically with reference to listings. The number of listings on the market is increasing, while the number of days on market for listings is decreasing. Properties that are appropriately researched and evaluated are selling within about 2% of their list price.

Interested in finding out how much your property might garner in today’s market? Give us a call! 

If you are currently not in the market yourself, but know someone who is considering buying or selling, please send them our way. Referrals are a large part of our business, and we offer a $500 referral fee for completed deals. Find out more details here: https://opendoorsvictoria.com/referrals.html

Cheers,

Greg & James

Winter real estate market wraps with improved consumer confidence and more stable pricing

A total of 460 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this February, 35.9 per cent fewer than the 718 properties sold in February 2022 but a 65.5 per cent increase from January 2023. Sales of condominiums were down 39.7 per cent from February 2022 with 161 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased 28.8 per cent from February 2022 with 220 sold.

“Last month we talked about the optimism building in the local market that our REALTORS® saw, and now we can see it in the market statistics,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol. “We can confirm the return of buyer confidence by the increase in sales through the late winter. The market is seeing some positive headwinds as we move into springtime, which is traditionally the busiest market for home sales. Inventory levels are starting to increase, a welcome trend when compared to the record lows of last year. We’re also seeing a stabilization at some price points and properties that are priced in accordance with current market conditions are selling at a good pace.”

There were 1,809 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of February 2023, an increase of 4 per cent compared to the previous month of January and a 113.1 per cent increase from the 849 active listings for sale at the end of February 2022. 

“The market today is different than we have seen in recent years,” adds Sol. “There’s plenty of demand from buyers, and we are still low in inventory, but there are opportunities in a less pressurized environment for consumers to get into a new home. Most buyers will find they have more time to view homes, make decisions and do their due diligence in this somewhat more relaxed market. Of course, we are heading into a new season which is typically very active. The statistics in this report reflect what happened last month. Prudent buyers and sellers will seek the knowledge of their Realtor to determine the up-to-the-minute conditions and how to best navigate the market.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in February 2022 was $1,321,400. The benchmark value in February 2023 decreased by 5.6 per cent to $1,247,200, down from January’s value of $1,251,100. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in February 2022 was $580,900, while the benchmark value in February 2023 decreased by 2.2 per cent to $568,200, down from the January value of $578,300.

Pre-purchase implications:

1. Additional property transfer tax for foreign entities and taxable trustees
2. Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act (Foreign Buyers Ban)
3. Anti Flipping Tax rule ( general information only )
4. No age restriction in strata corporations except 55+ (applicable to renters as well)
5. No long term rental restriction in strata corporations (except short term rentals if municipal or strata bylaws prohibit)
6. Home Buyer Rescission Period Regulation

 After purchase implications:

      7. Speculation and Vacancy Tax (provincial) 

      8. Underused Housing Tax (Federal)

If you have any questions, please feel free to give us a call.

Happy New Year to all of our valued clients. While it may not come soon enough for some of us, we can view the end of this volatile year with a boost of optimism. 

In order to manage inflation, the federal government has implemented several interest rate increases this year, which has created challenges when valuing a property in today’s market. Pricing competitively has become much more important when listing your home, as the sellers’ market has eased. It is once again more common to negotiate a purchase or sale with both parties involved, rather than entertain a one-sided ‘demand’. 

Real Estate economists are suggesting that the increase in interest rates will have a shorter life than previously anticipated; the most recent hike to 4.25% is considered by many to be the last one required to help curb inflation. This will open a window of opportunity for our clients to search a larger inventory, which is likely to appear in the new year. We have also seen an increase in the number of blended families purchasing properties, for example, adult children purchasing with parents to decrease the burden of a down payment or to reduce the qualifying challenges faced by a number of first-time buyers.

Along with the optimistic outlook for 2023, we also want to announce the opening of our new office "Open Doors Victoria Real Estate Group” located within our head office of Pemberton Holmes, located at 150-805 Cloverdale Ave. Our team is ready, and we look forward to assisting our many clients with all of their real estate needs. 

Happy Holidays to each of you and here’s to a Fantastic New Year!

Cheers,

Greg, James, Tim & Marilyn.

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